Estimates you can actually trust

Dear founder,

An estimate given too confidently is worse than no estimate at all, because people plan around it. The useful ones come with their workings, not just a figure.

What makes an estimate trustworthy

• The assumptions it rests on, written down
• A range, not a single heroic number
• What would make it bigger or smaller
• A note on the unknowns still to be pinned down

That honesty isn't hedging. It's the difference between a number you can plan against and one that quietly falls apart when reality shows up.

An estimate without its assumptions is just a guess wearing a suit.

Estimate in stages

Early on, a rough range is all anyone can honestly give. As discovery reduces the unknowns, the range tightens. Say that plainly, and revise openly when you learn something new.

The goal isn't to be a fortune-teller. It's to give people a number they can rely on, with enough context to know how firm it is. That builds far more trust than false precision ever will.